Saturday, January 20, 2024, marks three years since the commencement of the Biden Presidency after his success in the 2020 election. However, it also starts the one-year countdown to Inauguration Day 2025, when either the sitting President or someone else will be sworn into the nation’s highest office. In the time that exists between now and then, Americans have many decisions to make in a process which begins this week: the Presidential Primaries.
History of the Presidential Primaries
To understand anything in American politics, it is important to first assess its origins. Primary elections are organized by political parties as a process to determine which of their party’s candidates should run against the nominees of the opposing parties in any election. The person whom they choose is called the nominee. Throughout U.S. History, political parties have used various methods to make these decisions, the most common being one national convention where party leaders from each state gather to make the decision themselves, without consulting the people. In the mid-20th century, however, twelve states allowed the people to make the decision.
Until the late 1960s, most voters of each of the major political parties were content with trusting their leaders to make the nomination for them. However, at the 1968 Democratic National Convention, party leaders wanted to nominate Vice President Hubert Humphrey who supported the Vietnam War, which many Americans opposed. Because of this, many protested and even rioted outside the convention center, but the nomination would not change. Vice President Humphrey lost in the general election to President Richard Nixon anyways. However, Democratic Party voters wanted to start making the decision themselves.
Since 1972, all states and territories have added themselves to the primary system in both major political parties and have developed the systems we still use today to make nominations for President of the United States. (Territories can vote in primaries but not general elections except for Washington D.C.).
The Republican Primary
The system currently in place for the Republican Primaries is more complicated and varying than that of the Democratic Primaries. However, once explained, it is easy to understand.
In both systems, Democrat and Republican, states hold secret-ballot elections (like the general) or caucuses. For the most part, only party-registered voters will participate in their own party’s primary or caucus. Caucuses work as a more public way of voting where people argue and debate issues with each other and move around a room to show which candidate they support. Votes are then counted the same. Today, only Iowa, Nevada, North Dakota, and Wyoming hold caucuses for their presidential primaries.
After the results are finalized, the complexity begins. After all states hold their presidential primaries, each party holds its own week-long national convention in the summer where the party nominee is formally decided upon. At the convention, a candidate must receive a majority of the present delegates (party leaders from each state) to secure the nomination. Larger states regularly have more delegates than smaller ones. States that vote for Republicans more often than for Democrats have more Republican delegates than Democrat delegates, and vice versa. So, how do the primary election results connect to delegates?
The results of a primary election are reported as percentages. With these percentages, delegates are allocated in various ways based on the state the election is in.
Proportional Method: Candidates receive a quantity of delegates proportional (same percentage as) the number of votes they received in the primary of that state, so long as they have at least the minimum threshold (0-20%; depends on state) of the vote.
Minimum Threshold: percentage needed by candidates to be awarded any delegates.
Example: If a state has 40 delegates and Candidate A wins 30% of the caucus vote, they receive 12 delegates. If a Candidate B wins 12% of the caucus vote and that state has a minimum threshold of 15%, they receive no delegates.
Winner Take All Method: The candidate who receives most (does not have to be a majority) of the votes from that state receives all of that state’s delegates.
Example: If a state has 40 delegates and Candidate A wins 45% of the vote, Candidate B wins 30% of the vote, and Candidate C wins 25% of the vote, Candidate A receives all 40 delegates.
Hybrid Method: If a candidate receives a majority (more than 50%) of votes, they receive all of that state’s delegates. If no candidate receives a majority, the state follows the proportional method.
Example: If a state has 40 delegates and Candidate A wins 55% of the vote, Candidate B wins 35% of the vote, and Candidate C wins 10% of the vote, Candidate A receives all 40 delegates. If Candidate A wins only 50% of the vote, they receive 20 delegates.
Convention Method: States using this method organize a Republican Convention for their state only where registered Republicans or party leaders vote for candidates in a parliamentary way, similar to delegates at the national conventions. This method is mainly used in states with low populations because of the consequent low voter population.
Delegates awarded to candidates are required to vote for them at the convention so that the nomination made is representative of the people’s choice. Some delegates (4% of all delegates), however, are allowed by their state to vote for whoever they wish. They are known as unbound delegates.
At the 2024 Republican National Convention, a total of 2,429 delegates will be present, a majority of which is 1,215. The first candidate to receive this many delegates in a combination of those bound and unbound will win the Republican Nomination for President.
The Democratic Primary
If you understand the Republican Primary, the Democratic Primary is much easier to make sense of. The Democratic National Committee has made all the states use a uniform method for allocating their delegates after primary elections. All states must use the Proportional Method with a 15% minimum threshold for their Democratic Primaries.
The main difference between the two parties’ primary systems is the Democratic Party’s incorporation of more unbound delegates which they refer to as superdelegates. In 2024, 744 (16%) of the party’s total delegates will be superdelegates. After the 2016 election, to reduce the power of these unbound party leaders, the Democratic National Committee decided not to allow them to vote at the convention initially. If the 3,788 pledged delegates (must vote the way they are assigned) can create a majority (1,895) for one candidate, the superdelegates are not needed. If no candidate wins in the first ballot (first round of voting) at the convention, then all delegates, including superdelegates, become unbound and all can vote however they wish.
In 2024, 4,532 delegates will be present at the Democratic National Convention. On the first ballot, a candidate needs 1,895 of the 3,788 pledged delegates to win the nomination. If more ballots are needed, a candidate will need 2,258 of all the delegates present at the national convention in order to win the nomination.
Iowa & New Hampshire
Now that we understand the numbers, we can start to understand the strategy of presidential primaries relating to their placement on the calendar. In a primary season, it is most important for candidates to make a strong start that will create momentum to push them through the remainder of the season. In some years, the primaries might begin with ten or more candidates still running for the nomination. However, by the end of February, that can be narrowed down to two or three candidates because of two very important primaries: the Iowa Caucus and the New Hampshire Primary election.
In 2008, Barack Obama was trailing Hillary Clinton by nearly 20 points in every poll. Due to his non-stop campaigning in the fall and winter of 2007 in Iowa, many caucused for him and overnight, he shot up in the polls which propelled his campaign and set him on sturdy ground to make a realistic attempt at winning the nomination. This year is no different.
On Monday, January 15, 2024, the Iowa caucuses will be held as the first of the Republican primaries this year. Remaining in the race at this time are Former President Donald Trump, Former U.N. Ambassador and Former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida, and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy. While the former president continues to hold a strong lead over his opponents, the results of the Iowa Caucuses might change everything for one of the three trailing candidates.
While New Hampshire has a similar effect on the overall primary, it also has historical significance. Since 1920, New Hampshire has upheld its tradition of being the nation’s first primary election every election year. Dixville Notch, a town in New Hampshire, has maintained its own tradition of being the very first town in the nation to vote. In the past one hundred years, the state has written it into their state law that the NH Secretary of State must schedule the date before all other primaries excluding Iowa because it is a caucus. Many presidential hopefuls have been able to succeed in big numbers because of working hard for support from small crowds spoken to in diners and elementary school gymnasiums throughout New Hampshire. The state continues to maintain an image of what presidential elections should look like: candidates speaking directly to the people.
Super Tuesday
Of the entire primary season, one day of primaries awards over one third of delegates in each party. That day is known as Super Tuesday and is often scheduled for the first Tuesday of March, this year being March 5, 2024. On this day 16 states (including large states such as Texas and California) and 1 U.S. Territory will vote to award their delegates. Super Tuesday can be the “make or break” day for any candidate who has survived the first four or five primaries of the season.
In 2020, Joe Biden began the primary season with a struggle to succeed in Iowa or in New Hampshire and was trailing candidates like Senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. However, after hard campaigning in South Carolina, he was able to garner enough support to put him at the front with a gain of 39 delegates. This may have been Biden’s last early chance to build enough momentum to carry him through the season. But, with his gains in popularity from South Carolina, he was able to win 680 delegates on Super Tuesday, the most of any of the Democratic Candidates. This win may have secured a foundation for Biden’s eventual nomination.
2024 Outlook
As we find ourselves in another election year, it is important for all Americans to put aside our political differences in order to remain united during a stressful time of conflict and political turmoil throughout the world. The United States must remain a strong and influential paragon of modern democracy and liberty, which can only be done if the people of our nation can stick together and continue to respect, protect, and accept our democracy and her long-standing system.
References
“2024 Presidential Election Calendar: Primary, Caucus & Event Dates.” NBCNews.Com, NBCUniversal News Group, 11 Jan. 2024, www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-primary-elections/calendar.
“2020 Primary Election Results and Map | Upcoming Presidential Primary Races.” Www.nbcnews.com, www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-primary-elections/results-map/.
“America’s Presidential Primaries, Explained.” Www.youtube.com, www.youtube.com/watch?v=tCvMtkEVqdA&t=347s. Accessed 13 Jan. 2024.
“Super Tuesday Results 2020: Live Updates.” Www.politico.com, www.politico.com/2020-election/results/super-tuesday/.
Wiederkehr, Ryan Best, Aaron Bycoffe, Ritchie King, Dhrumil Mehta and Anna. “Iowa : President: Republican Primary : 2024 Polls.” FiveThirtyEight, 28 June 2018, projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/iowa/.